I don't pretend to know everything, but I know a little bit. And the little bit that I do know, I'm not afraid to talk about (even though nobody really listens). Thus, I'm thinking about the 2013 nominations and starting to make my predictions. You probably should not quote me on any of this and I will most likely be wrong on most of it, but just call me a weatherman and move on.
(For the record, when I say "dark horse," I mean an underdog nominee that might pull out ahead and win and surprise everyone.) Some of the categories I have skipped, either because I have no preference, I got bored, or nobody cares about them anyway.
Best Motion Picture - Drama
Will win: LincolnShould win: Lincoln
Dark horse: Life of Pi
While most of the nominees have decent bids for the award, I just think that Lincoln has the momentum going into the awards season. It made some deep waves because it is another of Spielberg's legendary war canon, and because of the magical combination of brilliant acting, beautiful cinematography, tight scriptwriting, and wise directing, it seems that nothing else really can measure up. The only other film I could see winning this award is Ang Lee's Life of Pi, which has gathered a surprising amount of buzz in the past week or so.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Drama
Should win: No opinion
Dark horse: No opinion
This category has an uncharacteristic lack of enthusiasm about it. Most of the actresses are from smaller or lesser-known films, which means most critics or audiences don't know their work. I'm only saying Chastain because she is usually a critic-pleaser, and because ZDT has some attention.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Drama
Should win: Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Dark horse: No opinion
This seems to be one of the more locked categories of the Globes. From day one, DDL has been a commanding presence in the awards talks. I did see this film, and I was captivated by DDL's performance. He redefined the on-screen persona of Lincoln, and it is truly unforgettable. I really don't see any contest here, the other nominees just have zero buzz about them.
Best Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
Should win: Les Miserables
Dark Horse: Silver Linings Playbook, Moonrise Kingdom
This is one of the more contested categories. First of all, I am still confused as to how Les Miserables is in the same category as Moonrise Kingdom. It almost seems unfair, like comparing an Olympic swimmer to a talented painter. They are both masters, but in different arts. To me, Les Mis and Moonrise are so completely different that the award could go either way. I think Les Mis is more award-friendly (the awards organizations tend to favor dramas or heavier fare over comedies), but Moonrise is truly original. And then you add in Playbook, which is a behemoth of energy right now, and it's really anyone's game. For innovative filmmaking and the sheer weight that it carries, I think Les Mis has the best shot.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
Should win: No opinion
Dark horse: Meryl Streep, Hope Springs
Lawrence has had some major roles in the past two years, and she is a very quickly rising star. She also has a massive buzz around her this awards season, and although I have not seen Playbook, the things I've read about it and heard about it cause me to think she'll probably win it. But don't underestimate Streep (or, for that matter, Judi Dench)--with her impressive list of nominations, she could possibly pull it out.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Motion Picture - Comedy or Musical
Should win: Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Dark Horse: Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
This is another category that I think is pretty well locked. The other nominees have no real bid when compared to Jackman's larger-than-life role. It's no secret that Jackman is the coup de grace of actors--singer, dancer, action star, talented theatre performer, easy on the eyes, charming, etc. It's also well-known that Les Miserables allowed him to stretch his Wolverine muscles into another, deeper character that commanded more out of the performer. Although I am only including Cooper to cover my bases (he has had a few talked-about roles this year), I really don't think anyone has a chance against the Aussie.
Best Animated Feature Film
Should win: Brave
Dark horse: Wreck-It Ralph
Having seen both of these films, I think that each of them have good chances to win. They are equally original and refreshingly different from most other animated features of the past year. Brave is not Pixar's best film, but it certainly deserves more love than it has gotten (at least it's no Cars 2). Even though the Mouse is hitting the awards hard with three nominees, I don't see Frankenweenie as having much chance against these two. (Are people finally getting tired of Tim Burton?!) Wreck-It Ralph is a fun divergence from animated trends, and it could possibly take it home; but I'm not so sure it has a good shot against the Pixar machine.
Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Should win: No opinion
Dark horse: Sally Field, Lincoln
Like Jackman, Hathaway's performance in Les Mis is heartbreakingly unforgettable. Her singing ability has been blowing away audiences who may have only known her from Princess Diaries or Get Smart. The juggernaut Les Mis is garnering many of the awards predictions, and this one is no exception. But I wouldn't count out the intensely wrenching performance of Field in Lincoln; the film created multiple opportunities for the talented actress to show off her chops in chamber pieces. And, like Les Mis, the period drama is gathering an impressive amount of steam heading into the awards season. It could possibly perform a near-sweep.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role in a Motion Picture
Should win: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Dark horse: Leonardo DiCaprio or Cristoph Waltz, Django: Unchained
Again, with the period drama Lincoln, it could perform an awards sweep a la Lord of the Rings: Return of the King and win everything. Jones certainly deserves recognition for his work as Thaddeus Stevens. In his typical manner, he embodies everything that is demanded of him for the role, and he works as an effective rival to the President's story. But at the same time, Django is getting a good bit of buzz, and it just might be possible for one of its nominees to win.
Best Director - Motion Picture
Should win: Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Dark horse: Ang Lee, Life of Pi
This is one of the categories that I believe is truly anyone's game. I could see it going to any one of the nominees for any number of reasons. Spielberg is much like Martin Scorsese: He always gets nominated and there is always the possibility that he could win. I don't think that Ben Affleck (Argo), Kathryn Bigelow (Zero Dark Thirty), or even Quentin Tarantino (Django: Unchained) have serious chance to win, but they could. The only other director I see as posing a legitimate threat to Spielberg's win is Ang Lee, and that only because there is a good bit of energy and debate circling Pi.
Best Screenplay - Motion Picture
Will win: Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Should win: Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Dark horse: Any of the other nominees
This category shares the same problems as the categories of Director and Picture: Drama. It could go any way.
Best Original Song - Motion Picture
Will win: "Suddenly," Les Miserables
Should win: "Skyfall," Skyfall
Dark horse: "Safe & Sound," The Hunger Games
This one is probably locked-in, but I'm making my predictions the way I want to. It would be nice to see Skyfall win something, considering it is one of the more innovative Bond films (it's also observing Bond's 50th year and it is nearly a $1 billion film, the highest earning Bond ever). Also, the song is beautiful. But, as with everything else, Les Mis is in a different ball game and will most likely sweep. (But let's hear some love for the haunting and beautiful "Safe & Sound," arguably one of the better original songs to come out of a film whose target audience is between 12 and 20. Thank God the awful "Thousand Years" was not an original song, or else Twilight might have been nominated.)
Best Television Series - Comedy or Musical
Will win: The Big Bang Theory
Should win: Modern Family
Dark horse: Smash
Best Performance by an Actor in a Television Series - Comedy or Musical
Will win: Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Should win: Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Dark horse: No opinion
Dr. Sheldon Cooper. Enough said.
Best Performance by an Actor in a Mini-Series or Motion Picture Made for Television
Should win: Benedict Cumberbatch, Sherlock
Dark horse: Woody Harrelson, Game Change
Okay, since Martin Freeman wasn't nominated for Sherlock, I suppose it's easy to choose the probable winner. Cumberbatch is an up-and-coming star in the American world, even though he's been working in British productions for years. He is truly a talented actor who is coming into his prime, and American audiences are noticing. (Get ready, we're about to see alot of him with upcoming projects like The Hobbit and Star Trek: Into Darkness.) Not only do I think Sherlock is one of the best television series of all time (most notably for its writing, cinematography, production design, and acting), I also think it is one of the most underrated and it deserves more attention than it has gotten this year from the American awards circuit. I only say Harrelson because I feel sorry for him, and also because there is a slight possibility that the Globes might turn its nose up at the smooth quality of the British television show and choose its own trash. Let's face it, American television is the bad relative that you hope will just go away, and British television is the exotic exchange student that you terribly wish would move in with you and never leave. But that is a rant for another post.
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